Friday, March 10, 2006

Zogby: Hack Pollster
There was a time when John Zogby was considered the preeminent best pollster in the nation, with no peers to rival him. In fact, during the 2000 election cycle, I was more inclined to believe the Portrat of America poll with it's obscenely low <2% margin of error. You see having taken many polisci classes at WSU, and a particularly good one of which a part was focused on polling practices (thanks Dr. Adams!), I know that any poll with a >3% MOE is pretty much completely invalid. Even a 3% MOE isn't THAT accurate. Turns out that Zogby had the numbers right that year, and POA was WAY off. I'm still not sure how they got that low MOE figured out. Anyway, for 2004 I focused on Zogby's numbers, which fortunately turned out to be wrong. Now, he's releasing a ridiculously slanted poll. How the mighty have fallen. Speaking of the mighty falling, I had CNN on in the background yesterday (not sure how it wound up on, but it was) and the steady rattling off of TERRIBLE news here, TERRIBLE news there, BUSH BAD BUSH BAD BUSH BAD was almost too much to take. I'm beginning to think if the MSM doesn't start getting their way, they will try to incite a national riot/revolution.

UPDATE 03/13/2006:
Here's a GREAT article by Jim Geraghty on this very topic.

Comments on "Zogby: Hack Pollster"


Anonymous Robert Lair said ... (10:10 AM) : 

I can't say I know what MOE is :), but I can say that I no longer put any of my weight to any polls. I have long lost confidence in them and have found that they are simply used for political purposes. Dissapointing.

For instance, I heard a poll today that said that 4 in 5 americans think Iraq is going to end up in civil war. I find that interesting given our discussion yesterday. It sure seems that the media wants everyone to think there will be a civil war, but since when does the media operate in reality?


Blogger Chucko said ... (11:01 AM) : 

Bob... MOE is Margin of Error. DUH! *smack* Regarding the polls, you just have to keep a close eye on where they're coming from. Sorry your post didn't show up right away, still figuring out this whole comment moderation thing. I figured it would give me the ability to go into comments that have been posted and moderate from there, but apparently I have to approve/deny each one. Or not. Still workin' on it.


Blogger Chucko said ... (2:28 PM) : 

Oh, and MOE is also the best and greatest high school in the land. Heheh. So I can see how you could get confused.


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